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The 2 studies below were taken from the website at the University Of Southern California ( http://www.usc.edu/CSSF/History/2003/Projects/J06.pdf ). They are being mirrored here in the event that they should be retired from the USC site.
CALIFORNIA STATE SCIENCE FAIR 2003 PROJECT SUMMARIES
Name: Jeffrey J.V. Blake
Project Title: Predicting the Weather
Abstract Objectives/Goals
The object of the experiment was to find the most accurate way to predict the weather without using advanced technology, like satellites and computers. The two methods compared are the scientific (using homemade instruments) and the traditional (using observations of nature) methods.
Methods/Materials
The scientific method required the usage of three homemade devices to gather data. These instruments were: a hygrometer for humidity, a barometer for air pressure, and a weather vane for wind direction. The traditional techniques were: the "Red Sky" poem, pinecones for humidity, ring around the moon for humidity, and leaves. Data was gathered for each method every morning and evening and predictions were made for each to be compared. The control was the predictions of the LA times.
Results
The scientific method produced 35 correct predictions out of 42 total. The traditional method had 34 correct predictions out of 42. The control (the LA Times) had 35 correct predictions out of 42. However there was an experimental error involving the traditional method. I made a mistake in one of the predictions, meaning that the traditional method rightfully deserves 35 correct predictions out of 42.
Conclusions/Discussion
It can be concluded that the scientific and the traditional methods are equal in their accuracy. Both had 35 correct predictions showing that my hypothesis (that the scientific method would be more accurate) was null. Science and tradition collide in many fields and I hoped to resolve that conflict with my experiment, to determine which method is truly the best to use. The experiment does settle this conflict. Science and tradition are equal; there is no right or wrong answer between the two of them.
Summary Statement
My project involved the comparison of the scientific and the traditional methods of weather predicting.
Help Received
Brother-in-law assisted in building instruments. Grandfather assisted in finding reliable traditional techniques.
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Name: Kristin Breeden: Sarah Luksik
Project Title: Is the Weatherman Reliable?
Abstract Objectives/Goals
We are comparing the observed temperature, barometric pressure, precipition, and humidity from our personal weather stations to what was predicted in our local newspapers which were based on computer modeling. Everyday we wrote down the observations from our weather stations. We cut out, from the newspaper, the predictions for that day. We then compared on a line graph the actual values to the predicted ones. We assumed that the predictions were going to be wrong and that they would be off of the line of the observed values. Precise weather prediction is important to many people. Weather has a strong impact on agriculture, science, transportation, and our daily lives.
Methods/Materials
Newspaper weather forecasts, home weather stations and monitors, journals. Daily comparisons of forecasts versus actual observations.
Results
Based on our findings by looking at our graphs and analyzing the data, our hypothesis that the predicted forecast is not truly reliable was proven correct. The graphs show the comparisons between the predicted temperatures and the actual daily temperatures.
Conclusions/Discussion
We found that predicting the weather is difficult because it involves human interpretation of computer data. Our results supported our hypothesis.
Summary Statement
Assessing the accuracy of weather predicting.
Help Received
Gary G. Love and Jason Nachamkin of the Meteorology Div. Naval Research Lab. Dan Luksik and Kay Breeden. |
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Salem Clock Shop - 1085 Broadway Street NE, Salem, OR 97301 - (503) 581-3803 Fax: (503) 581-3331 |
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Presentations by students comparing the amateur versus the professional prediction of weather. |
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TWO STUDENT STUDIES |